← FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Fire EruptingTier 1
at FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 20.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +4.1 |
| Wind Allies | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cemetery Sentry | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |